How often do we prevent ourselves or are prevented
by others from finding a solution? Only if you
understand your susceptibilities to being lead
astray can you fight to stay on the path of problem
Challenges to Intuition
PROBLEM: In a two-child family, one child is a boy.
What is the probability that the other child is a
is at first counterintuitive.)
PROBLEM: You're chosen as a contestant on "Let's
Make a Deal". Monty Hall tells you that your dream
car is behind one of 3 doors on stage and behind
the other 2 doors are goats. You choose door #3.
Monty then reveals that behind door #1 is a goat
and offers you the opportunity to change your
choice to door #2. Should you? Theanswer
is revealed in the movie "21".
Rationalization of false world
PROBLEM: What causes the seasons?
If you want to see more of yourself in a mirror,
should you step forward or backward? (Think about
it, then try it.)
Challenges of Intelligence
of the big lessons of behavioral economics is that
intelligence can make you stupid. A great example
of this is told by Isaac Asimov in a joke entitled
"What is intelligence,
A popular book on the subject of mistaken
Belsky and Gilovich'sWhy Smart People Make Big Money
The reasons we so distort our views of reality lie
in our ego-centrism. We take what Nobel laureate
Danny Kahneman calls the "inside view" with all of
its accompanying biases. Instead, we should really
take the "outside view" and consider the real world
statistics for all "cases" similar to ours.
Dogma and Deception
is not so different from business. In order to make
a profit, you need to sell your product. Messages
are crafted in ways that engender buy-in. But such
crafting can make it difficult to honestly evaluate
the message and consider alternatives. As problem
solvers, we need to be able to isolate the
essential problems free from the biases passed down
from others. We'll studyDerren Brown's "Mind Control"
in order to expose how deeply our own thinking can
be distorted by others.
SPOILER ALERT: If you're taking the class,
don't look at the answers.